NFL Week 16 Christmas Picks by Stuart Tomlin

“You better not laugh,

You better not cry

You better not pout,

I’m telling you why

Santa Claus is coming to town…”

We’re onto Christmas.

It’s Christmas week in the NFL, and it’s time for the gift of Week 16 picks!

Yes, I know, it’s what you always wanted.

Like Nathan Peterman handing out touchdowns to the other team.

It’s very early in the morning as I write this beginning as I fell asleep early and can’t get back to sleep, so using my wide-awakeness right now to write these picks. So if my picks end up being terrible and wrong, I’m blaming that. 

Yes…that’ll do.

Shall we get onto the picks?

Yes.

Yes we shall.

Titans v. Washingtons: I’m holding out hope that a fourth-string Quarterback can somehow lead the Washington D.C. Fitba Team to a victory over the Titans. I’m not holding out a lot of hope for that. Josh Johnson DID lead them to a win over the…Jaguars…so…there’s hope? The Titans are a much better team than the Jaguars. Imagine thinking we’d be saying that at the start of the year. What happened to Sacksonville, anyway? Derrick Henry seems to be finding his form at the right time, and Marcus Mariota has been decent this year. Washington need AP to be at his best for this game. I’m gonna go with the team with the starting Quarterback. Titans.

Chargers v. Ravens: Big Phil Rivers is the shining hope here. Keenan Allen is back, as is Melvin Gordon. Melvin Gordon comes back a week too late for my fantasy hopes for this season, but he did apologise online for that (genuinely. He apologised to his fantasy owners. An absolute hero of a man.) So, with homefield advantage and the AFC West still in play, the Chargers really need the win. However, the Ravens still have either the AFC North or a Wildcard slot in play, so this game is absolutely huge for both teams. Lamar Jackson is proving to be the future of the Ravens, and has given them a dual-threat QB that they didn’t have in Joe “Elite” Flacco. Flacco’s future is going to be a story of the offseason. As for this game…I really, really need a Chargers win for Colts reasons, so I’m gonna go with the hope here and pick the Chargers. But this one is really a toss-up of a game. It’s gonna be a fun watch, albeit a nervous one. Just, for the love of all that is holy, don’t let it come down to a Chargers field goal attempt.

Cowboys v. Buccaneers: How about Dem Cowboys? Dem Cowboys got absolutely leathered by the Colts in an incredibly pleasing manner, postponing their NFC East Hat and T-Shirt Day for about a week. They get to take that day home instead potentially against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. All the Buccaneers are really playing for at the moment is the future of Jameis Winston and Dirk Koetter, as well as a potential top ten pick. The Cowboys despite their performance in their 23-0 loss last weekend in Indianapolis, and yes, I’m not letting that one go for a while, are a better team than that performance, and should secure themselves an NFC East Title and a spot in the playoffs for the second time in three years. Cowboys. Now, about avoiding that one and done…

Lions v. Vikings: I see the word “Lions” and my mind goes blank. I don’t know why. It’s been like this all season. I’m not even sure they know who the hell they are. They beat the Patriots earlier in the season, which seems about three lifetimes ago. Since then…it’s been another brutal year in Detroit. Could the Lions honestly be in the Quarterback market this year? I’d actually have to start asking questions about the future of Matt Stafford as a number one QB in Detroit right now. It wouldn’t hurt to have a little bit of competition, no? As for Kirk Cousins and the Vikings, Minnesota is finding out that Kirk is pretty much modern Tony Romo. Some good quarterback play, tempered with some bone-headed decisions and a tendency to choke in the clutch. They should make the postseason and they’ll probably put one foot in the playoffs here. So yeah, Vikings. But how far they go in the playoffs might be on the arm of Cousins, and if they end up going to the third seed, it might be tricky. We shall see. Basically Minnesota, hope you play the Cowboys instead of the Bears?

Panthers v. Falcons: Imagine saying at the start of this year that both of these teams would be practically or officially eliminated (delete as applicable) and that game would essentially be meaningless. Cam Newton has been sidelined for the year, finally. He hasn’t looked right all season and I’m pretty sure the battering by the Steelers utterly broke the Panthers as a whole, but I honestly think Newton may have been rushed back from the shoulder injury. I’d look into that before it costs you a season of your franchise Quarterback. I speak from full experience on that one. Meanwhile, they’ll start…*check notes*…Taylor Heinicke. Apparently a quick Google search tells me that one of his college coaches joked he might get them fired.

Yikes.

Can I just pick Atlanta and be done with this?

Cool.

…sigh, I guess I have to analyse the Falcons too.

It’s been a lost year in Atlanta and the curse of the Super Bowl hosts has hit them hard. Injuries hit them hard and they’ve just looked off for most of the year. Julio Jones took about twelve weeks to score a touchdown. And that’s honestly the weird thing. He’s been getting a ton of yards…just not into the endzone. Bizarre. Just a forgettable year for Atlanta and you might get the horrible present of the New Orleans Saints playing the Super Bowl in your stadium,. I’ve seen the Patriots play the Super Bowl in our stadium. It’s horrible.

Until they lost. That was pretty good.

Yeah, Atlanta’s gonna win this one I reckon. Falcons.

Eagles v. Texans: We have a team fighting to secure their division against a team fighting to not be eliminated. Had you assumed it was the Eagles looking to secure their division against the Texans fighting to not be eliminated, Conglaturation, you are indeed wrong. Or stuck in early 2018. How’s the time travelling thing going? Do Scotland qualify for Euro 2020? Is Trump gone yet? Anyways, the Texans need one win out of two to win the AFC South officiailly and need to keep grinding out wins to deny the Patriots a first-round bye. The Eagles meanwhile need to win to keep their hopes of the postseason alive. The Eagles have looked like a different team with Nick Foles, while the Texans have been stumbling a bit lately. They narrowly beat out the Jets last weekend. The JETS. Meanwhile, the Eagles beat a potential Super Bowl contender in the Rams…so I’m gonna go with the “upset”. Bizarre we’re calling a win for the Super Bowl Champions over a team that were 4-12 last year an “Upset”, but here we are. Eagles.

Colts v. Giants: Ah, here we are, it’s the Go For It On Fourth Bowl. For the first time since we started this blog in 2016, myself and Kyle’s teams are meeting in an NFL regular season game. My Colts up against his Giants. The curse of me supporting an AFC team, and him supporting an NFC team. We’ll be watching the game together as well. This is very much a case of two teams going in very, very different directions. The Colts are fighting for the playoffs. The Giants are looking to secure a top ten pick. This has “HAHA TIME FOR COLTS” all over it, and that scares me a little bit, especially after Jacksonville. But Indy has gotten in two huge wins over the Texans and Cowboys, Andrew Luck is playing well and Darius Leonard will be furious after his Pro Bowl snub. Eli Manning might have a rough afternoon ahead of him this weekend. The Giants will be missing Odell Beckham for the third consecutive game. If I didn’t have a personal stake in this game, I’d confidently be predicting an Indianapolis victory. However, I’m still taking the Colts to win this one, and put ourselves in with a shout of a playoff spot match against the Titans for Week 17. Fingers crossed.

Browns v. Bengals: The former punching bag of the AFC North takes on the current punching bag of the AFC North. Hey look, Cleveland, you finally have a team in your division who are worse than you! Cleveland have actually been surprisingly competent this year, and I’ve said this so many times, but I am really, really not used to this timeline. Baker Mayfield might be the Quarterback answer that the Browns have needed since their return to the league in 1999. THEY CAN STILL QUALIFY FOR THE PLAYOFFS IN WEEK 16…although it’d take the biggest miracle since 34^th Street to do it. Yes, I made that joke in the Review, I know, but it doesn’t make it any less true. Meanwhile, Hue Jackson returns with the Bengals this weekend as Special Assistant to Marvin Lewis…and potentially his heir apparent. Serious, what the hell are you thinking, Cincinnati? This season started promisingly for the Bengals and then just fell off a cliff. AJ Green might be away in the offseason and there’s still the perennial Andy Dalton questions, and then you might replace Marvin Lewis with Hue Jackson? Frying pan, fire, etc etc. I’m gonna go with the Browns to win, but to be eliminated from the playoff hunt this weekend due to other circumstances around them. But they should hold their heads high. They might have a bright future…the Bengals on the other hand? Yeesh.

Patriots v. Bills: It’s week 16, and the Patriots have yet to secure their place in the playoffs and have yet to secure a division title. This truly is the weirdest timeline imaginable. While I hate to write off the Patriots because we’ve been down this road so many damn times before, you know how the “dynasty is over, the Empire is crumbling” takes come in year after year after year, this year does seem a little different on that front. Father Time is undefeated and seems to be catching up to Tom Brady lately. They’ve been taking longer to recover from losses that usually piss them off and lead to them leathering teams and are on a two-game losing streak at the moment. However, they’ll most likely wrap up the AFC East and the playoff spot this weekend against the dead-in-the-water Bills. After a year in the playoffs, the Bills have gone back to the Bills team we all know and love. Utter pish. On the plus side, Josh Allen looks promising? It probably won’t help you at the Death Star this weekend, though. Patriots.

Jets v. Packers: This game means pretty much nothing at this point. The Jets will probably be picking top ten. Water continues to be wet. As I’ve said many a time, there is some promise with Sam Darnold (albeit with some worries about his arm strength? I mean, it’s worked for Alex Smith? Kinda?) but they have no weapons bar Robby Anderson and an ageing defence. They also have an absolute disaster area of a head coach in Todd Bowles. Speaking of disasters at head coach, Mike McCarthy is gone. That’s a bit harsh to be fair, as he did lead them to a Super Bowl, and has been competent for most of his run, but I think the writing had been on the wall for a while and it was the right decision. Both of these teams need a new head coach and some serious work in the offseason to get them competent. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Clay Matthews and not much else. The Jets have Sam Darnold, Robby Anderson, Jamal Adams…and not much else. Yep. Serious work in the offseason, guys. Clean house, start over, and just don’t hire Josh McDaniels.

Oh, we need a winner for this game, do we?

The Packers are starting Aaron Rodgers.

There’s your answer. Packers.

Dolphins v. Jaguars: Once again, if you had guessed at the start of the season which of these two would still have life in the playoff race at this point, and which one would be deader than a dead thing, you’d be guessing the wrong answer at this point. The Florida Derby sees a Dolphins team who are a game back in the AFC Wildcard race, and could technically *still* win the AFC East, up against Hashtag Sacksonville who haven’t been able to stop a damn thing all season. And benched Blake Bortles for a potentially worse option in Cody Kessler. The Dolphins have been given hope by Ryan Tannehill’s return in November and not having to start Brock Osweiler anymore, but Frank Gore being injured for the rest of the season is a big blow for them. Hopefully that’s not the end of his career. As for Jacksonville, they’ll also likely be in the QB market either in Free Agency or the Draft…I guess it depends how high they pick. One amazing year for the Jaguars last year and now they’re back to normal at the bottom of the league. The more things change. I’ll take the Dolphins to try and keep their playoff hopes alive, but the AFC East door shuts on them as the Pats also win. And if the Colts and Titans both win as picked, that would shut the Dolphins out, as the Colts and Titans meet week 17. This is a big week for Miami. They need to win. And help from somewhere. Anywhere at this point.

49ers v. Bears: The Niners take on the Bears in a game of what could’ve been against the best season in years. The Niners lost Jimmy Garoppolo early in the season to an ACL injury and any hopes they had of the playoffs went out the window with that. Although there has been some promise – Nick Mullens has been decent in his stead in the last few weeks, not quite the GOAT that some people (ahem, me, jokingly…well mostly jokingly) were predicting him to be. I mean, he got verified on Twitter during his first start. Tom Brady never got verified on Twitter during his first start. Just saying. George Kittle looks he’ll be a great option for Jimmy G next season. Meanwhile, this has been some season for Chicago. Trubisky has been a sensational option at QB for them this year, he’s playing fantastic football, and that defence led by Khalil Mack has been terrifyingly good. The Bears could be knocking on the door of the Super Bowl at this rate. They’ll keep their form up going into the playoffs here. Bears.

Cardinals v. Rams: This seems to be a bit of a theme of the week – if it’s not a playoff potential match, it’s a very good team against a terrible team. And this is the case here. The Cardinals are without a shadow of a doubt the worst team in the league right now and fully deserve the first overall pick in the NFL Draft. David Johnson has been utterly wasted this year, and Larry Fitzgerald has been completely wasted in what might be his last season. Once again, Steve Wilks is probably going out the door after his first year. And it’d be deserved. I’m not one for firing coaches after one season normally, but he’s not going to succeed at a Head Coaching position. Just cut him loose and start the entire thing over. As for the Rams, they’ve been very shaky lately, Todd Gurley might be injured at the worst possible time and Jared Goff seems to be reverting to rookie form in the last two weeks or so. My God, what is happening to the Rams? They seem to be imploding at, as I say, the worst possible time. They’ll probably win here and get slightly back on track, because they’re playing the Cardinals for fuck’s sake. Rams. But if they don’t get themselves properly back on track…like I said to the Cowboys…one and done?

Saints v. Steelers: Once again, a huge game with playoff indications for both teams. The Saints are battling for homefield advantage, and one more win will do it. The Steelers have the AFC North battle and a potential Wildcard race too, with teams breathing down their neck left, right and centre. If they don’t get themselves the AFC North title, they could be in a massive amount of trouble in terms of actually making the postseason. And that’s even with slaying the demon of finally beating the Patriots last weekend. Jaylen Samuels is starting once again in James Conner’s stead. And will probably play quite well, like Conner did. Man, this entire season has been an incredible detriment to Le’Veon Bell’s future earnings. And his current earnings. Welp. Meanwhile, the Saints ground out a win in Week 15 despite Drew Brees not being at his best…I swear, Drew Brees has let the MVP talk get to him, I think. He’s not been great the last couple of weeks, and as mentioned – many times – this IS NOT A GOOD TIME OF YEAR TO START DOING THIS STUFF…Ahem. I honestly think Saints in the Superdome are still a massively tough out, and the Steelers seem to be the sort of team who can win a huge victory one week and shit the bed the next…look at their losses to the Chargers and Raiders recently. I am somewhat hesitantly picking the Saints to win, but honestly, neither result would surprise me at this point.

Seahawks v. Chiefs: A huge Sunday Night Football game that could have massive implications on both conferences. We have the Seahawks, battling for a wildcard slot in the NFC up against the already-qualified Chiefs looking to secure homefield advantage and the AFC West title. The Chiefs had a huge blow last weekend by losing to the Chargers and giving the Chargers a potential opportunity to sneak in the back door and take the division away from them. Losing Kareem Hunt has hurt their running game, although Damien Williams did have a very, very good game against the Chargers. The Seahawks had a bit of a blow losing to the Niners but have outperformed their predicted .500 predictions for the year (unless they lose the last two) and Russell Wilson has matured into a Quarterback who doesn’t have to rely on his defence to win games for him. Well, that offensive line actually not getting him battered every game helps. Again, speaking from experience – having an actual functioning offensive line is a very, very good thing. More teams should try it. I’m massively torn on this one. I’m gonna go…uhh…the Chiefs. Just. This might even go to overtime.

Raiders v. Broncos: This game is happening on Christmas Eve. This game will be on while Santa is delivering presents. This game means absolutely nothing in the playoff race, although can massively affect who will be picking first in April. I’ll be honest, I won’t be watching this game live. The Broncos get a Christmas Eve away game for the third year in a row. Poor bastards. The Raiders have had a rotten season under Grudenball, and while they have three first rounders, two of those are likely from playoff teams and will be later in the first round. Merry Christmas! The Broncos’ season ended last week when they were eliminated from the playoffs. I’ll be honest, I’m leaving this one to the coin as I don’t really care about this game. So, heads Raiders, tails Broncos…*tosses coin* Tails. Broncos. Merry Christmas to all, and to all a goodnight.

And that’ll do it for my week 16 picks.

Enjoy the weekend’s games, and have a wonderful Christmas. Spend time with your families and those you love. And spend a little bit of time for yourself, too.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays everyone.

As always,

Go Colts.